When the Forward Curve Tells the Story
Brent Crude on March 9, 2026
For teams still managing forward curves manually — pulling data from multiple sources, re-running models, rebuilding reports — March 9 was a stress test they didn't ask for.
OpenDataDSL gives you the platform to build forward curves that are as dynamic as the markets you trade.
When the Market Moves, Your Forward Curves Should Too.
Global energy markets were affected by military operations in the Middle East and disruptions to petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices responded to these events. European natural gas forward curves adjusted due to changes in LNG delivery assumptions. Refinery margins changed as feedstock and product prices moved. Market indicators such as crack spreads, spark spreads, and dark spreads also experienced fluctuations during this period.
This post focuses on one: ICE Brent crude. Not because it was the only curve that mattered, but because it illustrates most clearly what a forward curve shock looks like in the data — and what it requires from your infrastructure.
Is Your Forward Curve Ready?
The two forward curves below were pulled directly from the OpenDataDSL platform using ICE.IFEU.B:SETTLE. Two settlement dates. The difference between them is the story.
On 2 January 2026, the ICE Brent forward curve was calm. M01 settled at $60.75/bbl, M12 at $60.40. A spread of −$0.35 across twelve months. Flat contango.
Then came March 9.
Following the escalation of military operations in the Middle East and the disruption of petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, M01 settled at $98.96 — a 63% jump on the front month in under ten weeks. The forward curve didn't just shift upward. It flipped entirely. M12 settled at $73.47, creating a steep backwardation spread of −$25.49 from M01 to M12 along the forward curve.
In ten weeks, the entire structure of the market had changed.
The Hidden Cost of Slow Forward Curves
In moments like these, the forward curves management is everything. It drives hedging decisions, valuation models, risk limits, and procurement strategies. Every hour your forward curve lags behind market settlement is an hour you're working from the wrong numbers.
| Contract | 2 Jan 2026 | 9 Mar 2026 | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| M01 | $60.75 | $98.96 | +$38.21 |
| M03 | $60.28 | $88.95 | +$28.67 |
| M06 | $60.24 | $80.15 | +$19.91 |
| M09 | $60.29 | $75.88 | +$15.59 |
| M12 | $60.40 | $73.47 | +$13.07 |
Source: ICE.IFEU.B:SETTLE via OpenDataDSL platform.
When markets shift, can your infrastructure keep pace?
Smart Curves Don't Panic. They Just Update.
OpenDataDSL's Smart Curves Management is built for exactly this. Instead of manually stitching together spot prices, futures data, and seasonality adjustments every time the market moves, you define your curve logic once. The platform does the rest — automatically, consistently, and in real time.
With OpenDataDSL you can:
- Build and version forward curves that update automatically as new market data arrives
- Manage curve dependencies automatically when the forward curve updates, all dependent child curves rebuild automatically
- Forward curves construction with Fusion AI — make the construction smarter, consistent, and fully automated
- Visualise curve structure instantly — see contango vs. backwardation at a glance, across any commodity
- Layer in your own logic — seasonal adjustments, spreads, custom models — all in one place
- Monitor and alert — get notified when a curve shifts beyond a defined thresholds quality check
- Create your own Insights - as dashboards, reports - fully in your control
OpenDataDSL provides a platform to manage forward curves efficiently, intelligently, and without manual bottlenecks.
OpenDataDSL provides a commodity data platform and Fusion AI assistant suite purpose-built for energy and commodity trading organisations. To learn more about how we handle data enrichment and integration:
Fill out the form below, we will contact you to arrange a personally tailored demo.
How about a demo?
Our team is here to find the right solution for you, contact us to see this in action.
Fill out your details below and somebody will be in contact with you very shortly.